# Program ## expand\_more ### Visit the menu links for the conference schedule by day, view the whole schedule below, or [click here for a PDF schedule grid.](/files/statistics/files/program_bff4_0.pdf) **[Registration is required--please click here to register!](/%20https://www.events.harvard.edu/profile/form/index.cfm?PKformID=0x497896a496%20)** **[Click here for a full program PDF.](/files/statistics/files/final_program_0.pdf)** Harvard ID holders can attend daytime events for free, but they must register and pay the registration fee to attend the banquet. **Monday, May 1** 8:00 am - 8:45 am Registration 8:45 am - 9:00 am Opening Remarks, [Xiao-Li Meng, Harvard University](/people/xiao-li-meng) 9:00 am - 10:15 am Featured Discussion: What Bayes did, and (more to my point) what Bayes did not do Speaker: [Arthur Dempster, Harvard University](/people/arthur-p-dempster) Discussant: [Glenn Shafer, Rutgers Business School](http://www.glennshafer.com/), [Slides](/files/statistics/files/2_glenn_shafer.pdf) 10:15 am - 10:30 am Coffee Break 10:30 am - 12:00 noon Invited Session [Ryan Martin, North Carolina State University](http://www4.stat.ncsu.edu/~rmartin/), "Confidence, probability, and plausibility" [Jan Hannig, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill](http://www.unc.edu/~hannig/), "Generalized Fiducial Inference: Current Challenges," [Slides](/files/statistics/files/4_jan_hannig.pdf) [Nanny Wermuth, Chalmers University of Technology/Gutenberg-University](http://www.math.chalmers.se/~wermuth/), "Characterising model classes by prime graphs and by statistical properties," [Slides](/files/statistics/files/5_nanny_wermuth.pdf) 12:00 noon - 1:30 pm Poster Session with Lunch 1:30 pm - 2:45 pm Featured Discussion: Using rates of incoherence to refresh some old "foundational" debates Speaker: [Teddy Seidenfeld, Carnegie Mellon University](http://www.cmu.edu/dietrich/philosophy/people/faculty/core-faculty/seidenfeld.html), [Slides](/files/statistics/files/6_teddy_seidenfeld.pdf) Discussant: [Christian Robert, University of Warwick/Paris-Dauphine](https://www.ceremade.dauphine.fr/~xian/), [Slides](/files/statistics/files/7_christian_robert.pdf) 2:45 pm - 3:00 pm Coffee Break 3:00 pm - 4:00 pm Invited Session [Alfred Hero, University of Michigan](http://web.eecs.umich.edu/~hero/), "Continuum limits of shortest paths," [Slides](/files/statistics/files/8_alfred_hero.pdf) [Daniel Roy, University of Toronto](http://utstat.toronto.edu/wordpress/?page_id=6578), "On Extended Admissible Procedures and their Nonstandard Bayes Risk," [Slides](/files/statistics/files/9_daniel_roy.pdf) 4:00 pm - 5:30 pm Panel: Views from the Rising Stars Panelists: Ruobin Gong, Harvard University; [Jan Hannig, University of North Carolina Chapel Hill](http://www.unc.edu/~hannig/); [Keli Liu, Stanford University](https://statistics.stanford.edu/people/phds); [Ryan Martin, North Carolina State University](http://www4.stat.ncsu.edu/~rmartin/); [Tyler VanderWeele, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health](https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/tyler-vanderweele/) Moderator: [Pierre Jacob, Harvard University](/people/pierre-e-jacob) 7:00 pm Evening Banquet Speaker: [Stephen Stigler, University of Chicago](https://galton.uchicago.edu/faculty/stigler.shtml), "Risky Business" **Tuesday, May 2** 9:00 am - 10:15 am Featured Discussion: The Secret Life of I.J. Good Speaker: [Sandy Zabell, Northwestern University](http://www.statistics.northwestern.edu/people/faculty/sandy-zabell.html) Discussant: [Cynthia Dwork, Harvard University](https://www.seas.harvard.edu/directory/dwork), [Slides](/files/statistics/files/response-dwork-050217.pdf) 10:15 am - 10:30 am Coffee Break 10:30 am - 12:00 noon Invited Session [Vladimir Vovk, University of London](http://www.vovk.net/), "Nonparametric predictive distributions," [Slides](/files/statistics/files/vladimir_vovk.pdf) [Don Fraser, University of Toronto](http://utstat.toronto.edu/wordpress/?page_id=765), "Distributions for theta: Validity and Risks," [Slides](/files/statistics/files/14_don_fraser_talk.pdf) [Antonietta Mira, Universita della Svizzera Italiana](http://search.usi.ch/en/people/f8960de6d60dd08a79b6c1eb20b7442b/Mira-Antonietta), "Deriving Bayesian and frequentist estimators from time-invariance estimating equations: a unifying approach," [Slides](/files/statistics/files/15_antonietta_mira.pdf) 12:00 noon - 1:30 pm Break for Lunch 1:30 pm - 2:45 pm Featured Discussion: BFF Four--Are We Converging? Speaker: [Nancy Reid, University of Toronto](http://utstat.toronto.edu/wordpress/?page_id=800), [Slides](/files/statistics/files/reid-bff.pdf) Discussant: [Deborah Mayo, Virginia Tech](http://www.phil.vt.edu/dmayo/personal_website/), [Slides](/files/statistics/files/17_deborah_mayo.pdf) 2:45 pm - 3:00 pm Coffee Break 3:00 pm - 4:00 pm Invited Session [James M. Robins, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health](https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/james-robins/), "Counterexamples to Bayesian, Pure-Likelihoodist, and Conditional Inference in Biased-Coin Randomized Experiments and Observational Studies: Implications for Foundations and for Practice," [Slides](/files/statistics/files/18_jamie_robins.pdf) [Larry Brown, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania](http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~lbrown/), "Empirical Bayes Prediction under Check Loss," [Slides](/files/statistics/files/empirical_bayes_check-loss_bff4_rev_larry_brown.pdf) 4:00 pm - 5:30 pm Panel: Perspectives of the Pioneers Panelists: [Jim Berger, Duke University](http://www2.stat.duke.edu/~berger/); [Larry Brown, Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania](http://www-stat.wharton.upenn.edu/~lbrown/); [David Cox, Oxford University](http://www.stats.ox.ac.uk/people/associate_staff/david_cox) via remote participation; [Don Fraser, University of Toronto](http://utstat.toronto.edu/wordpress/?page_id=765); [Nancy Reid, University of Toronto](http://utstat.toronto.edu/wordpress/?page_id=800) Moderator: [Vijay Nair, University of Michigan](http://dept.stat.lsa.umich.edu/~vnn/) **Wednesday, May 3** 9:00 am - 10:15 am Featured Discussion: Randomisation isn't perfect but doing better is harder than you think Speaker: [Stephen Senn, Luxembourg Institute of Health](http://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/mathematicsstatistics/staff/stephensenn/), [Slides](/files/statistics/files/21_stephen_senn.pdf) Discussant: [Ned Hall, Harvard University](https://philosophy.fas.harvard.edu/people/edward-j-hall) 10:15 am - 10:30 am Coffee Break 10:30 am - 12:00 noon Invited Session [Jim Berger, Duke University](http://www2.stat.duke.edu/~berger/), "An Objective Prior for Hyperparameters in Normal Hierarchical Models," [Slides](/files/statistics/files/23_jim_berger.pdf) [Harry Crane, Rutgers University](http://www.harrycrane.com/), "Probabilities as Shapes," [Slides](/files/statistics/files/_24_harry_crane.pdf) [Peter Song, University of Michigan](https://sph.umich.edu/faculty-profiles/song-peter.html), "Confidence Distributions with Estimating Functions: Efficiency and Computing on Spark Platform" 12:00 noon - 1:30 pm Break for Lunch 1:30 pm - 2:45 pm Featured Discussion: Modeling Imprecise Degrees of Belief Speaker: [Susanna Rinard, Harvard University](https://www.susannarinard.com/) Discussant: [Andrew Gelman, Columbia University](http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/) 2:45 pm - 3:00 pm Coffee Break 3:00 pm - 4:00 pm Invited Session [Nils Lid Hjort, University of Oslo](http://www.mn.uio.no/math/english/people/aca/nils/), "Data Fusion with Confidence Distributions: The II-CC-FF Paradigm," [Slides](/files/statistics/files/harvard_talk_nils_lid_hjort.pdf) [Gunnar Taraldsen, Norwegian University of Science and Technology](https://www.ntnu.edu/employees/gunnar.taraldsen), "Improper priors and fiducial inference," [Slides](/files/statistics/files/taraldsenlindqvist17bff4handoutver.pdf) 4:00 pm - 5:30 pm Panel: The Scientific Impact of Foundational Thinking Panelists: [Emery Brown, Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Massachusetts General Hospital](http://users.neurostat.mit.edu/enb/); [Paul Edlefsen, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Research Center](https://www.fredhutch.org/en/labs/profiles/edlefsen-paul.html); [Andrew Gelman, Columbia University](http://www.stat.columbia.edu/~gelman/); [Regina Liu, Rutgers University](http://www.stat.rutgers.edu/people-pages/faculty-and-staff); [Donald B. Rubin, Harvard University](/people/donald-b-rubin) Moderator: [Min-ge Xie, Rutgers University](http://www.stat.rutgers.edu/home/mxie/)